ZERO EQUILIBRIUM

By Chinedu Okoye For over six decades, Warren Buffett has been the defining figure of value investing — a disciplined, patient, almost monastic approach to capital allocation that turned Berkshire Hathaway into one of the most successful conglomerates in financial history. But behind the continuity of Berkshire’s success lies a quieter story: the rise of Todd Combs, the man Buffett handpicked to help carry the firm’s investing legacy into the future. Todd Combs did not arrive at Berkshire as a Wall Street celebrity. Before joining the conglomerate, he ran Castle Point Capital, a small but impressive hedge fund known for its deep research and conservative investment style. It was precisely this temperament — the ability to remain rational under pressure, think in decades rather than quarters, and maintain discipline when others chase momentum — that caught Buffett’s attention. The Scouting Process: Introduced through financial circles, Buffett initially followed Combs’ wo...

- By Chinedu Okoye Paper Synopsis: • Stocks had one of their worst week in months on AI over investment fears. MSCI World index slipped -1.6%, in Asia stocks dipped by -1.7% on aggregate, on Friday's close. • Treasuries which saw yields dip to about 3.9% are back up to 4.09%, owing to bond traders reacting to the hawkish stateiments from Fed Presidents and FOMC members in the Powell camp. • The concerns about t he AI boom has seen stocks under pressure as the market is moving gradually from the cautious optimism ZE presented and/or stated, and moving towards fear.. • ZE Analysts view this as a much awaited - and to some extent, needed - correction and portfolio rebalancing rather than a full blown bear market which is defined as a 20% decline. • Thus far, that is far from the case, and only an economic or balance sheet recession can trigger such market moves, seeing growth as value stocks dip alike. • The effect on treasuries would depend on central bank policy action,...

Overview: Last week Tantalizers Plc.'s subsidiary – Tantalizers Fisheries – secured a  deal with US based  Harvester Fisheries LLC, that would see the American company import shrimps, and prawns worth Millions of dollars annually from Nigeria. The [Tantalizers] fisheries company, - a subsidiary of Tantalizers Plc. -  operates from the Lekki Free Trade Zone in Lagos, Nigeria and is an  object-oriented. It specializes in harvesting, trawling, processing, and exporting wild-caught shrimp and prawns in line with global quality and food safety standards.  Harvester Fisheries LLC is based in New Bedford, Massachusetts, one of the most active fishing ports in the United States The deal has implications for Free Trade Zones viability, deeper business cooperation with the United States, enablement by relevant government ministries, department and agancies with the Ministry of Insutry, trade and investment chairing and/or anchoring the intergovernmental commit...

By Chinedu Okoye  Executive Summary: Nigeria has achieved a measure of macroeconomic stabilization over the last 18–24 months, with improved FX liquidity stronger reserves, easing inflation, and a lower debt-to-revenue burden. But while the surface looks neat, the [real] economy beneath remains largely unchanged. Structural constraints or restraints remain and continue to restrict real sector activity, industrial capacity excluding Oil and Gas, has been stagnant, and productivity remains low. This brief evaluates Nigeria’s FY2024–2025 macro trajectory using three lenses; first,  macroeconomic indicators –inflation, reserves, debt metrics, tax capacity, second, sectoral performance – agriculture,, services, and oil industries, and thirdly, the Macro   risk environment namely; FX fragility , potential debt rollover pressure , policy coherence - or lack of ZE’s central finding that, though Nigeria has stabilized the headline indicators, fundamental indica...

By Chinedu Okoye  Summary: • Nigeria’s quickest route to economic expansion lies in deepening its oil and gas base, leveraging crude revenues to catalyze downstream private investments and industrial value chains. • The proposed 500,000 bpd Ondo Refinery, backed by a $50 billion international consortium, signals renewed investor confidence and sets Nigeria on course to becoming Africa’s energy hub. • Competition between Dangote and the new consortium refinery could force efficiency, improve domestic pricing, and stabilize supply, benefiting consumers and industries alike. • A broader refining base improves FX inflows, strengthens the Naira, helps finance eckoic diversification, enhancing surplus trade balance, while establishing Nigeria as a dominant fuel supplier under AfCFTA.  • The oil sector’s deepening indirectly powers industrialization, logistics, agriculture, and manufacturing, reflecting how refined energy products are the lifeblood of economic act...

By Chinedu Okoye  De-Dollarization Campaign Gains Steam: China's De-Dollarization campaign gains steam as the Chinese Yuan in demand from a global expansion of overseas trade using Yuan for settlements. This makes the remninbi the BRICS anchor currency by virtue of being the most demanded BRICS currency and the PBOC's gold hedge. In the ZE paper on January 8th, 2024 titled: ‘ BRICS Watch: Risks and Tricks of the De-dollarization Campaign ’ it was posited that the Yuan would need to take lead for the De-Dollarization campaign to materialize as too many (BRICS) currencies cannot at the same time be raised in prominence, but can be affected by the rise in Yuan's prominence. This position seems to have materialized, with the increasing global demand for the Yuan. The Yuan Emergence: Then, BRICS nations had gradually commenced bilateral trade settlements in local currencies, powered by currency swaps. This was the begining of a renewed Yuan domina...

By Chinedu Okoye  Rachel Reeves faces a smaller fiscal hole than expected. The UK’s fiscal deterioration of about £14 billion since March was well below private forecasters’ estimates — meaning the deficit has widened, but less severely. This gives the Treasury marginally more fiscal space than markets had anticipated. In other words, the government is spending £14 billion more or earnings £14 billion less than it's planned expenditure - way less than forecasts. This means there is more fiscal pace (a lesser budget hole) than anticipated. Resolution Foundation's Proposal to the Chancellor: The Resolution Foundation urged the Chancellor to double her fiscal buffer to £20 billion and reduce household energy bills by moving energy-related levies from consumer bills to general taxation. In effect, this shifts the cost of green subsidies and energy programs from households to taxpayers, this ZE views as a move that could marginally lower headline inflation given energy’s...