ZERO EQUILIBRIUM

By Chinedu Okoye  1.0 Overview : In the first three quarters of the year, Nigeria experienced an average of 3.8%, with forecasts for full year FY 2025 in the 3.9%-4.1. However, for this to happen, Q4 GDP needs to be at or above 4%. In the same vien, debt to Revenue has surged against with debt servicing gulping 80% of government revenue. This creates a fiscal burden should revenue not increase sufficiently. Though non-oil revenue was met, Oil revenue budgeted, lagged, in volume and in price. We look at the uneven growth rate per industry, and the contribution to overall output GDP, fiscal ratios, to ascertain the country's fiscal health, inflation, exchange rate prospects and demand management polices. 1.01 Sectoral Breakdown;  Contribution      | Output y-o-y %∆ Q1: Services   57.5% | +4.33% Agro          23.4% | 0.07% Industry       20% | +3.42% Q2:    Contribution ...

– By Chinedu Okoye  Executive Summary: •  The ZE 2025 Outlook rejected a synchronized global recovery, arguing that policy asymmetries, demand fragility, and asset-class divergence would define market outcomes. •  China’s weak consumer demand and household leverage proved central, feeding into industrial losses by November 2025 and confirming that policy easing could cushion, but not revive, organic demand. •  Crude oil remained demand-constrained, with OPEC discipline and geopolitical risks insufficient to sustain breakouts amid weak refinery utilization and soft Chinese demand. • Precious metals outperformed materially, driven by structural, non-cyclical demand such as central-bank diversification and geopolitical hedging, with silver outperforming gold on industrial demand. •  Equities stayed relatively stable, with performance driven by cash flows and balance-sheet strength rather than valuation expansion. •  EM sovereigns and crypt...

By Chinedu Okoye For over six decades, Warren Buffett has been the defining figure of value investing — a disciplined, patient, almost monastic approach to capital allocation that turned Berkshire Hathaway into one of the most successful conglomerates in financial history. But behind the continuity of Berkshire’s success lies a quieter story: the rise of Todd Combs, the man Buffett handpicked to help carry the firm’s investing legacy into the future. Todd Combs did not arrive at Berkshire as a Wall Street celebrity. Before joining the conglomerate, he ran Castle Point Capital, a small but impressive hedge fund known for its deep research and conservative investment style. It was precisely this temperament — the ability to remain rational under pressure, think in decades rather than quarters, and maintain discipline when others chase momentum — that caught Buffett’s attention. The Scouting Process: Introduced through financial circles, Buffett initially followed Combs’ wo...

- By Chinedu Okoye Paper Synopsis: • Stocks had one of their worst week in months on AI over investment fears. MSCI World index slipped -1.6%, in Asia stocks dipped by -1.7% on aggregate, on Friday's close. • Treasuries which saw yields dip to about 3.9% are back up to 4.09%, owing to bond traders reacting to the hawkish stateiments from Fed Presidents and FOMC members in the Powell camp. • The concerns about t he AI boom has seen stocks under pressure as the market is moving gradually from the cautious optimism ZE presented and/or stated, and moving towards fear.. • ZE Analysts view this as a much awaited - and to some extent, needed - correction and portfolio rebalancing rather than a full blown bear market which is defined as a 20% decline. • Thus far, that is far from the case, and only an economic or balance sheet recession can trigger such market moves, seeing growth as value stocks dip alike. • The effect on treasuries would depend on central bank policy action,...

Overview: Last week Tantalizers Plc.'s subsidiary – Tantalizers Fisheries – secured a  deal with US based  Harvester Fisheries LLC, that would see the American company import shrimps, and prawns worth Millions of dollars annually from Nigeria. The [Tantalizers] fisheries company, - a subsidiary of Tantalizers Plc. -  operates from the Lekki Free Trade Zone in Lagos, Nigeria and is an  object-oriented. It specializes in harvesting, trawling, processing, and exporting wild-caught shrimp and prawns in line with global quality and food safety standards.  Harvester Fisheries LLC is based in New Bedford, Massachusetts, one of the most active fishing ports in the United States The deal has implications for Free Trade Zones viability, deeper business cooperation with the United States, enablement by relevant government ministries, department and agancies with the Ministry of Insutry, trade and investment chairing and/or anchoring the intergovernmental commit...

By Chinedu Okoye  Executive Summary: Nigeria has achieved a measure of macroeconomic stabilization over the last 18–24 months, with improved FX liquidity stronger reserves, easing inflation, and a lower debt-to-revenue burden. But while the surface looks neat, the [real] economy beneath remains largely unchanged. Structural constraints or restraints remain and continue to restrict real sector activity, industrial capacity excluding Oil and Gas, has been stagnant, and productivity remains low. This brief evaluates Nigeria’s FY2024–2025 macro trajectory using three lenses; first,  macroeconomic indicators –inflation, reserves, debt metrics, tax capacity, second, sectoral performance – agriculture,, services, and oil industries, and thirdly, the Macro   risk environment namely; FX fragility , potential debt rollover pressure , policy coherence - or lack of ZE’s central finding that, though Nigeria has stabilized the headline indicators, fundamental indica...