ZERO EQUILIBRIUM

By Chinedu Okoye  Overview: Crude oil prices breached resistance levels of $59 for WTI and $63 for BRENT) within the week. With BRENT settling at  $64.13 and WTI around $59.44, a marginal break  to an otherwise sideways market. This move follows ongoing geopolitical tensions, news and/or events (the US - “Venezuelan incident”, Iran tensions, etc.) and short-covering before the long weekend – these factors are fundamentally driving prices. On a technical basis , both benchmarks have broken above the prior highs at around $63 (BRENT) and $59 (WTI). Week-on-week they're both up by 1% (BRENT 1.2%, WTI 0.9%), month-on-month they are up roughly +8% , yet year-over-year they remain down about –19% and ( BRENT )  and –22 % (WTI) , reflecting how far prices fell in 2025. From this, it can be observed that Crude is slowly clawing back from its lows but still sits well below 2024 levels. The rally is modest, and held by short-term factors, and not yet a broad bre...

By Chinedu Okoye  Intro: China is leaning decisively towards fiscal policy as the main engine of economic support heading into 2026. Recent pledges out of Beijing point to sustained fiscal expansion, meaning government spending is likely to rise significantly — or as needed — to support both consumers and producers by lifting aggregate demand. This is not a random or abrupt policy pivot. It is calculated. Priority sectors have been clearly identified, and financial engineering mechanisms are being refined to improve policy effectiveness. The Fiscal Tilt and Priority Sectors: The priority sectors remain advanced manufacturing, technological innovation, and human capital development. Spending in advanced manufacturing and tech innovation is aimed at driving sustainable growth, while investment in human capital improves the quality of the labour market needed to utilise these developments. Growth is no longer just about volume, it is about quality, and quality is what give...

By Chinedu Okoye  1.0 Overview : In the first three quarters of the year, Nigeria experienced an average of 3.8%, with forecasts for full year FY 2025 in the 3.9%-4.1. However, for this to happen, Q4 GDP needs to be at or above 4%. In the same vien, debt to Revenue has surged against with debt servicing gulping 80% of government revenue. This creates a fiscal burden should revenue not increase sufficiently. Though non-oil revenue was met, Oil revenue budgeted, lagged, in volume and in price. We look at the uneven growth rate per industry, and the contribution to overall output GDP, fiscal ratios, to ascertain the country's fiscal health, inflation, exchange rate prospects and demand management polices. 1.01 Sectoral Breakdown;  Contribution      | Output y-o-y %∆ Q1: Services   57.5% | +4.33% Agro          23.4% | 0.07% Industry       20% | +3.42% Q2:    Contribution ...

– By Chinedu Okoye  Executive Summary: •  The ZE 2025 Outlook rejected a synchronized global recovery, arguing that policy asymmetries, demand fragility, and asset-class divergence would define market outcomes. •  China’s weak consumer demand and household leverage proved central, feeding into industrial losses by November 2025 and confirming that policy easing could cushion, but not revive, organic demand. •  Crude oil remained demand-constrained, with OPEC discipline and geopolitical risks insufficient to sustain breakouts amid weak refinery utilization and soft Chinese demand. • Precious metals outperformed materially, driven by structural, non-cyclical demand such as central-bank diversification and geopolitical hedging, with silver outperforming gold on industrial demand. •  Equities stayed relatively stable, with performance driven by cash flows and balance-sheet strength rather than valuation expansion. •  EM sovereigns and crypt...

By Chinedu Okoye For over six decades, Warren Buffett has been the defining figure of value investing — a disciplined, patient, almost monastic approach to capital allocation that turned Berkshire Hathaway into one of the most successful conglomerates in financial history. But behind the continuity of Berkshire’s success lies a quieter story: the rise of Todd Combs, the man Buffett handpicked to help carry the firm’s investing legacy into the future. Todd Combs did not arrive at Berkshire as a Wall Street celebrity. Before joining the conglomerate, he ran Castle Point Capital, a small but impressive hedge fund known for its deep research and conservative investment style. It was precisely this temperament — the ability to remain rational under pressure, think in decades rather than quarters, and maintain discipline when others chase momentum — that caught Buffett’s attention. The Scouting Process: Introduced through financial circles, Buffett initially followed Combs’ wo...

- By Chinedu Okoye Paper Synopsis: • Stocks had one of their worst week in months on AI over investment fears. MSCI World index slipped -1.6%, in Asia stocks dipped by -1.7% on aggregate, on Friday's close. • Treasuries which saw yields dip to about 3.9% are back up to 4.09%, owing to bond traders reacting to the hawkish stateiments from Fed Presidents and FOMC members in the Powell camp. • The concerns about t he AI boom has seen stocks under pressure as the market is moving gradually from the cautious optimism ZE presented and/or stated, and moving towards fear.. • ZE Analysts view this as a much awaited - and to some extent, needed - correction and portfolio rebalancing rather than a full blown bear market which is defined as a 20% decline. • Thus far, that is far from the case, and only an economic or balance sheet recession can trigger such market moves, seeing growth as value stocks dip alike. • The effect on treasuries would depend on central bank policy action,...