Zero Equilibrium® Markets and Macro Weekly Report:
- By Chinedu Okoye
Summary:
• This week saw a divergence between developed‐market indexes, as European and UK stocks ended the week higher, as did Japan’s Nikkei. By contrast, US indexes slipped with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), NASDAQ and S&P 500 all down by over 1% on the week.
• The Nigerian equity markets pushed higher on rising oil prices and bargain‐hunting, with the NGX All-Share Index (ASI) up seven-tenths of a percentage point to N198k. This is as energy stocks led gains, followed by industrials and Telco (MTNN).
• Oil prices continued their rally. WTI crude climbed above $98.70 and Brent $103.14 by week’s end (roughly +50% over the past month), reflecting tight Middle East supply.
• Precious metals weakened as gold eased (to $5,051.10/oz on Mar.13) and silver fell further to $81.343, outpacing Gold on the weekly and monthly opposite directions. As industrial metal copper stayed down, extending monthly declines.
• Global bond prices slid (yields rose) as inflation fears and policy uncertainty resurfaced. Bloomberg’s US Aggregate Bond Index was down -0.9% for the week. As Oil spikes lead markets to reprice inflation and hence interest rate cuts or hawkish holds, both of which are bearish for bonds.
• Emerging market (EM) debt weaken, with the Vanguard EM Bond ETF (VWOB) posting the week’s steepest drop. Investors shifted to liquid, short-term paper.
• The U.S. dollar strengthened across the board. The Dollar Index (DXY) gained +1.6% on the week, as investors sought safe-haven liquidity in USD, which rose against other majors, including the Swiss franc.
Introduction:
Last week’s market action was dominated by a combination of geopolitical risks and shifting investor risk sentiment. Early month war jitters in the Middle East sent oil sharply higher and knocked equities lower.
However, hopes of a near-term ceasefire to go by by U.S. and Israeli statements, fueled a notable rally in European, UK and Asian markets later in the week. Globally, yields climbed on inflation concerns, and this also rose the demand for the US dollar.
This report presents a weekly review of market moves, from a Macro lens, with commentary on different asset price movements, from major index performance to commodites, and currency exchange rates, whilst highlights key macroeconomic and political developments driving them. The review covers four asset classes comprising of; equities, commodities, fixed income and currency.
Equities:
Equity indexes across Europe and the United Kingdom, the Japan recorded weekly gains, pairing back loses in the past week. This contrasts with the United States where major indexes were down in the week, while Asian EM were mixed with China's Shenzhen Composite Index (SZSE) up +2.59%, and South KOSPI up the most in the EM group of countries watch by +5.44%.
The NIFTY, Shanghai and IDX Composite were all down in the week with China's Shanghai flat as it declined by eight-tenths of a percentage point. From the chart above itis clear markets are still down from a month ago with all indices, with the exception of China's Shanghai and Shenzhen index up just under and just over 1% respectively.
On a yearly non-inflation or exchange rate adjusted returns, South Korea leads the entire ZE Index Watchlist on a year-on-year basis, at 113.81% (See table above). The NGX ASI is up +0.7% on the week, +11% on the month and +86.22% year-on-year.
Dissecting the index the best performing segment on a weekly basis is NGX 50 (which comprises of the top 50 largest capitalized and weighted companies on the NGX ASI), is up the most at over +5%< however NGX Oil – though not surprisingly– is up the most on a monthly basis, second to NGX 50> on a year-on-year basis the entire index is up 86%, the NGX 30 up +76.41%, NGX 30, +82.31%, and the NGX 50 +74.36%.
This dominance of the Oil sector in the past month is in line with Zero Equilibrium expectations on energy stocks not just in the country but Globally, but the high month-on-month gain in the NGX 59 and with the NGX 39 coming in second highest after the overall NGX ASI index indicates or suggests concentration of returns in the larger Cap stocks.
Commodities:
Precious metals continue to face pressure down week-on-week with Silver outpacing Gold on the downside as usual, and also outperforming gold on the monthly upside as it is up +6% against the yellow metals half a percentage point weekly rise. This indicates that gold has come under more pressure in the past month as investors scout for liquidity in response to the averse economic effects of the war.
Copper is also down qinthe week and the month, leaving oil the only commodity on the ZE Watchlist to record gains weekly, monthly and yearly, as the 50%+ increase in the past month taking prices to $98.71 (WTI) and $103.14 (BRENT), A with spreads down below $5, indicating a continued strong bid in the week.
Fixed Income:
All Developed Market Sovereign bonds on the ZE Watchlist decline in price (as shown in the table below), this decline spread also to the EM space as ZE EM government bond proxy Vanguard Emerging Markets ETF (VWOB) decline the most in the week and in the past month.
Investors continue to chase liquidity, and shorterterm bills (all the above are 10 Year Notes excluding VWOB)
Currency Exchange:
The US dollar rose against it's peers as shown by the rise in the dollar index on a weekly and monthly basis, as markets continue to sought the green back in liquid form, as they hold US backed assets.
The Greenback appreciated against both developed market peers including Swiss Franc (CHF) which used to be a conventional safe haven, however the last month the market has somewhat challenged that status as the USD rush returns.
Macro Watch:
Geopolitics dominated macro indicators this week as the US and Israel intensified strikes on Iran, and this promoted the Iranian Revolutionary Guards continued threats blocking Gulf oil shipments if attacks continued.
Oil prices briefly spiked above $100 on this news. However, investor sentiment improved when President Trump signaled the conflict would end quickly which helped reverse stock losses in the day, and in the week for European Major Indexes. But worries still linger as the Oil supply strain has caused the some countries notably the US and Japan to hint at tapping their reserves. Thus, there remains the likelihood of a continued volatility in oil as the war “enters a decisive phase,” according to regional media, with major implications for inflation and growth.
US Fed Outlook:Federal Reserve speakers remained cautiously optimistic, and somewhat hawkish, in line with other developed and EM central banks. This has been the source of pressure and a major headwind for Gold.
European Fiscal and Political: In Brussels, Eurozone finance ministers gave Italy a clean bill on its 2025 budget as deficits are expected to come in at less less than 3%. This is positive for both the country and the region as Rome nears an earl exit the European Union's Excessive Deficit Procedure, in a further improvement of the country's fiscal health.
Asian EM Growth and Inflation:
China’s economy showed mixed signals. February CPI inflation rebounding to just over 1.2% year-on-year modestly, allaying some deflation fears, as consumer spending picks up, in on if the most consumer confident economies in the world. The PBOC is likely to remain on pause regarding any monetary expansion,.
Japan’s spring wage talks are under way with unions seeking a fifth straight year of double-digit raises, outting an extra cost strain on businesses.
The mixed moved across both regins and asset classes indicate that markets continue to balance immediate inflation and volatility shock of the war against possibilities of a near term cease fire, or some major and positive concession. But large institutional investors remain cautiously overweight EM stocks in countries with more stable outlooks (e.g., China, South Korea, and Taiwan [tech]).
Analyst Concluding Remarks:
Last week’s volatility shows policy and sentiments still dominate markets, on the one has, oil market risks remain the key inflation driver and economic headwind., which have taken down both stocks and bonds prices.
Zero Equilibrium expects a pattern of a sharp reactionary sell-off (as oil halts trade flows) followed by a rebound once and if political commitments emerged to neutralize disruptions.
Inflation risk is likely to stay elevated. Energy stocks should continue to outperform, but only near-term, or as long as the oil and gas bid stays high , however end-demand will suffer if recession follows. In equities, we remain selective, with a bullish outlook on Asian tech/AI-focused markets which still seem valuable with strong upside, while US valuations remain stretched if growth slows. Fixed income and FX volatiliy fears will likely see the dollar stay bid until clarity returns on inflation and war.
In the coming wee, the attention will be on further war developments, Fed and ECB commentary, key data (US retail sales and UK CPI). As actions around the Straits of Hormuz affect prices and therefore have major obearing in policy decision making.
For next week, market attention will track further war developments (any ceasefire talks or escalations), Fed/ECB policymakers’ comments, and key data (e.g. UK CPI, U.S. retail sales). The Zero Equilibrium view is that the “destruction of energy ships” and promises of stable oil flows should eventually ease the immediate liquidity crunch. If conflict abates quickly, stocks may keep the rally going; if not, volatility will persist.
[Sources: All data and analysis above are drawn from market reports and news (e.g. Reuters, Vanguard, Investing.com) for the week of March 8–14, 2026.
Note: Figures may be rounded or aggregated for clarity. The positions reflect the latest available prices and should not be taken as real-time quotes]
DISCLAIMER: THE ABOVE IS MEANT FOR EDUCATIONAL AND CONVERSATIONAL PURPOSES AND DOES NOT CONSTITUTE INVESTMENT ADVICE, BUT INSIGHTFUL MARKET RESEARCH. ZERO EQUILIBRIUM WILL NOT BE LIABLE FOR ANY LOSSES ARISING FROM MAKING DECISIONS BASED ON THE ABOVE.
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