Commodity Watch Weekly Wrap: Gold and Silver Soar on, Crude Drops


By Chinedu Okoye 


Summary:

• Gold and Silver surpass ZE 2025 targets, a Gold hits $3900/oz and Silver breach $47/oz.

• Persistent Inflationary pressures and Central Bank and Investor diversification drive this move. With Silver outpacing gold on a yearly, monthly and weekly basis.

• Crude Oil draws down below ZE support levels as supply and demand factors, economic uncertainties weigh on prices.

 

1.0 Gold Powers on:

Gold nears the $4,000 outlook showing signs of hitting that mark before years end and/or January 2026 —per ZE forecast. However modern the forecast was, it reinforces the markets continuing appetite for the yellow metal, as economic uncertainty continues.


(Chart 1: Gold)

Persistent inflationary pressures, and concerns over slowing global growth continues to drive safe-haven demand. Central bank buying, particularly from emerging markets, led by China's PBOC, seeking diversification away from the USD, remain foundational with bullish sentiment.

Gold's Potential Headwinds: USD strength or hawkish Fed surprises; receding inflation or disinflation narrative; profit-taking after strong run.


2.0 Silver Outpaces Gold year on year month-on-month-on-month and Weekly:

Silver hits $48, representing a +50% year-on-year increase, +15.12% month-on-month-on-month and +3.33% week-on-week, outpacing Gold's +45.83%, monthly +8.16% and +3.17% yearly, monthly and weekly increase respectively.

 



Per our last outlook, silver is poised to outpace gold, with more upside as the gold/silver ratio remains above historic norms of 50:1 - 70:1.


2.10 Headwinds for Silver: Silver benefits not just from safe-haven flows but also from industrial uses in solar panels, EV batteries, and electronics, making it a dual-play asset in a green-transition economy.

2.11 Possible Tailwinds for Silver: Slower industrial activity globally— Supply increases or recycling pressure— Sharp rise in interest rates


3.0 Crude Oil Drops:

Crude dropped on the week to $64 and $60 levels on the week breaking ZE's tentative support levels of $63 and $67 respectively.


(Chart 3: BRENT month-on-month)


WTI recorded -6.44% week-on-week, and just above -4% month-on-month declines along with BRENT dropping by similar levels (-6.00% week-on-week and -4.27% month-on-month, as both benchmarks move in tandem.


(Chart 4: WTI month-on-month)


This move takes crude well out of the expected rangebound trajectory. Weakening demand indicators, slower-than-expected economic momentum in key Asian economies, and resilient U.S. supply have combined to pressure benchmarks lower.

U.S. commercial crude stocks grew by ~1.79 million barrels in the latest week, surprising markets and signaling soft demand absorption. Meanwhile, refinery utilization dropped to 91.40% (from ~93.0% prior), and runs have fallen over three straight weeks, further signalling weakening processing activity.

With inventories creeping up and refinery runs easing, any recovery will require either a supply cut from OPEC+ or a stronger rebound in demand from China and India. Until then, downside risks dominate.

3 10 Potential Headwinds for Crude: Weak demand signals, global economic slowdown; Rising inventories and slack in refinery runs, USD strength alternative energy transitions.

3.11 Possible Tailwinds for Crude: Supply cuts from OPEC+ or surprise outages; a stonger than anticipated demand rebound (esp. in Asia); and upgrades in refinery throughput as maintenance ends.


4.0 ZE Remarks and Expectations:

- Consumer and industrial demand by extension continues to be a major Oil determinant, as given by the increases in US Crude Inventories.

- Near term rallies are expected to continue for precious metals, whilst Crude continue to face downward pressures. However our Outlook for Crude remains bullish.

- This is as the probabilities of the occurrence of re factors necessary for a bearish Gold stance – interest rates increases from reflation, a strengthening– are very low.

- Supply side pressures, a weaker US dollar, and easing concerns over trade would be bullish for Oil, and silver, worth Gold expected to be unaffected past a few trading sessions.

- ZE new full year outlook for Silver is $50.50/oz. And Gold ≥$4,000.

- Investors holding either one or both of Tether Gold (XAUT) and Pax Gold (PAXG) as well as gold have and are set to reap more double returns on more upside on the yellow metal.

- Silver longs still look attractive from our stand point. 



DISCLAIMER: The above article is intended solely to inform and enrich economic and market discussions. The views and projections expressed are objective, independent, and for informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any asset. We are Bullish on Gold, Silver, and Crude Oil.


— ✍🏾 Zero Equilibrium®


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